Next week’s Farnborough International Airshow could play host to orders and commitments for up to 875 commercial aircraft, according to a forecast from aviation intelligence company IBA.
The firm expects narrowbody aircraft to account for approximately 480 examples, representing 55% of the total. A further 280 widebodies could be ordered, alongside 75 regional jets, 25 turboprops and 15 widebody freighters.
The Farnborough Airshow 2026 orders forecast includes potential firm orders, memoranda of understanding, letters of intent, options and previously undisclosed commitments that could be revealed during the event.
If realised, the total would represent a significant increase in activity compared with the previous two major international airshows.
At last year’s Paris Air Show there were 601 aircraft orders, while the previous iteration of Farnborough in 2024 produced deals for 438.
However, it would remain below the exceptional order level of 1,338 aircraft recorded at the 2023 Paris Air Show.
Airlines compete for delivery slots
Dr Stuart Hatcher, chief economist and chief data officer at IBA, said: “Farnborough 2026 could mark a return to more substantial airshow order activity, driven less by the launch of new aircraft programmes and more by the urgent need for airlines to secure future capacity. Many carriers are reaching a point where fleet replacement decisions can no longer be deferred, yet the delivery positions available to them extend well into the next decade.
“With meaningful A320neo-family and 737 MAX slots increasingly limited until around 2033, and widebody availability extending even further, airlines that need aircraft for replacement or growth must act now or depend on leases and older equipment for longer. This competition for capacity, combined with volatile fuel prices and the efficiency benefits offered by newer aircraft, should support a stronger result at Farnborough than we have seen at recent airshows.”
Potential activity identified by IBA includes widebody fleet commitments from American Airlines, Etihad, Qantas, Air India, Cathay Pacific, China Eastern, China Southern, and Singapore Airlines, including the confirmation of Korean Air’s undisclosed order.
Narrowbody commitments are also expected from Turkish Airlines, Ethiopian Airlines, and Alaska Airlines, amongst others.
The chance of Emirates placing the elusive A350-1000 order remains low, although a further change to their small 787 order is always possible.
Supply chain risks remain
Despite the positive outlook, IBA cautions that geopolitical uncertainty, volatile airline operating costs, supply chain constraints and continued challenges in raising aircraft production rates remain significant risks.
Higher fuel prices strengthen the economic case for replacing older and less efficient aircraft, but can also place pressure on airline balance sheets and affect the timing of investment decisions.
IBA noted that orders announced during the show would generally have been in the works for months or years rather than triggered directly by increases in fuel prices. However, the firm said rising costs and the risk of losing increasingly scarce delivery slots may may have accelerated some decisions already under consideration.
